TMT Post

BEIJING, December 22 (TMTPOST) —— After the target of an annual economic growth of 5.5% was set by the government, problems in the Chinese economy were beyond expectations, according to the speech delivered by Jia Kang, a famous economist and former director of Chinese Academy of Fiscal Science, at the 2022 T-EDGE Global Innovation Conference on Thursday.

Unexpected problems resulted from the resurgence of the pandemic in China's economic powerhouses. As a result, we managed to achieve a positive growth rate of only 0.4% in the second quarter. The growth rate in the first half of the year was only around 2.5%. After adjustment in the third quarter, the number was 3% in September. Annual economic growth is expected to be 3% or slightly higher, but not more than 3.3%.

At the same time, the transformation of development means that we should evolve from an extensive economy to intensive and high-quality economic development. High-speed development is unsustainable. At present, the macro economy remains sluggish due to the impact of the transformation, changes in Sino-Us relations, and the impact of the pandemic.  It is expected that the economy will recover next year and have a stronger momentum after the new pandemic control policy is implemented.

Jia also pointed out that the downward trend of China's macroeconomy since 2010 has not ended. In 2022, the GDP growth rate is expected to be around 3%, affected by demand contraction, supply shock, and weaker expectations. The market expectation continues to decline this year.

However, with the opening of relevant important meetings and the dynamic optimization and adjustment of pandemic control policies, Jia believes that there will be a relatively obvious economic recovery next year. In particular, given the relatively low base this year, the guiding GDP growth target for next year can be raised at or above 6%.